October 2023 market update – Canadians less rosy on the economy

Introduction

Global equity markets fell over October as geopolitical tensions, relatively weak economic data and the possibility of higher-for-longer interest rates weighed on investor sentiment. Inflation continued to show signs of easing in October, which prompted central banks such as the Bank of Canada (“BoC”) and European Central Bank (“ECB”) to hold steady.¹ Manufacturing activity contracted in major economies, suggesting global demand was relatively muted.

An advanced estimate in October showed the U.S. economy grew by 4.9%, annualized, in the third quarter of 2023, while the European economy shrank by 0.1%. China’s economy expanded by 4.9% year-over-year in the third quarter, showing some signs of stabilization. The S&P/TSX Composite Index declined over the month, hurt by weakness in the Health Care and Real Estate sectors. South of the border, U.S. equities also fell. Yields on 10-year government bonds in Canada ticked lower, while those in the U.S. finished higher. The price of gold moved higher amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, while the price of oil slipped.